Barclays Names Turkey a Top Emerging Market Pick
This is not casual praise. When a senior Barclays economist publicly flags a market as ‘favored,’ portfolio managers in London, New York and Frankfurt take notice. It typically precedes a shift in institutional capital allocation — meaning real money, not just sentiment. Turkey has been working hard to rebuild its credibility with foreign investors after years of unconventional monetary policy, and endorsements like this suggest that effort is gaining traction.
For ordinary Turks, the connection to daily life is direct: foreign capital inflows support the lira, ease pressure on inflation, and give the central bank more room to eventually cut interest rates. A Turkey that international banks want to invest in is a Turkey where borrowing costs can come down faster. The question is whether this momentum holds — or whether political and geopolitical turbulence derails it before the benefits reach your pocket.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: I spent 15 years watching how foreign institutional money moves in and out of Turkish assets. One thing I learned: when a tier-one bank like Barclays publicly calls a market ‘favored,’ it is not a throw-away comment. Research chiefs like Keller choose their words carefully — their words move capital.
Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread has dropped significantly from its 2023 peaks above 500 basis points to the 250-280 range today. Foreign holdings in Turkish government bonds, which collapsed to near-zero during the unorthodox rate-cutting experiment, are slowly rebuilding. These are the real signals behind Keller’s comment.
The risk for Turkish investors is timing. Markets price in good news fast — the BIST-100 and lira have already partially reflected the orthodox policy pivot. The next leg up requires either faster-than-expected disinflation or a sustained current account improvement. Neither is guaranteed.
My read: Turkey is in a window of genuine opportunity with global investors, but it is a narrow window. Any policy surprise or external shock — a Fed pivot delay, regional conflict escalation — could close it quickly. Position accordingly.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi