Bitcoin Crashes 40%: Is the Bull Run Finally Over?
The sell-off did not happen in a vacuum. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and renewed regulatory pressure from several governments have combined to drain liquidity from risk assets across the board. Bitcoin, sitting at the riskiest end of that spectrum, absorbed the sharpest blow. When the dollar strengthens globally, capital tends to flee emerging markets and speculative assets simultaneously — a double hit for Turkish holders.
The key question now is not where Bitcoin has been, but where it goes from here. History shows that Bitcoin has recovered from 40% drawdowns before — sometimes violently. But each cycle brings more institutional involvement, more regulatory scrutiny, and a more complex macro backdrop. Whether this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a prolonged bear market depends entirely on what the U.S. Federal Reserve does next and whether global risk appetite can recover.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: For Turkish investors, this crash lands differently than it does in New York or London. Over the past three years, Bitcoin became a de facto hedge against lira depreciation. When USD/TRY was climbing past 18, then 25, then 32, many ordinary Turks bought Bitcoin not because they believed in blockchain ideology, but because they needed something — anything — to protect their savings. A 40% drop in Bitcoin denominated in dollars translates into an even steeper loss when measured against what they originally paid in lira.
Consider the math: someone who bought Bitcoin at $60,000 when USD/TRY was around 18 paid roughly 1,080,000 TL per coin. At today’s depressed Bitcoin price and current exchange rates, that same position may be worth considerably less in lira terms even if the lira itself has weakened further. The currency hedge did not hold.
From my banking years, I watched clients chase dollar assets during every lira crisis — sometimes wisely, sometimes not. Bitcoin is the new version of that instinct, but with far higher volatility. The lesson here is position sizing. Bitcoin as 5% of a portfolio is a calculated risk. Bitcoin as a primary savings vehicle is a gamble. Turkish retail investors need to hear that distinction clearly right now.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi