Crypto Agenda – May 26, 2025
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Nvidia’s Strategic Response: A Custom AI Chip for China
Nvidia plans to release a new low-cost AI chip tailored for China, following the U.S. export restrictions on its high-end H20 model. According to Reuters, mass production is expected to begin in June 2025. The chip will feature downgraded specifications to comply with U.S. restrictions, particularly the 1.7 TB/s bandwidth cap.
The product is estimated to be priced between $6,500–$8,000, significantly lower than the restricted H20 chip ($10,000–$12,000). Nvidia’s China market share has already dropped from 95% to 50%, prompting this third customized AI product effort.
A company spokesperson noted: “Until we secure U.S. government approval, we’re effectively cut off from China’s $50 billion data center market.”
Comment: Tech firms like Nvidia are adapting quickly, designing custom products to bypass geopolitical constraints.
Pakistan Goes All-In on Bitcoin Mining and AI
Pakistan has allocated 2,000 megawatts of surplus electricity for AI and Bitcoin mining. Backed by the Ministry of Finance and Pakistan Crypto Council, the initiative aims to attract billions in foreign investment and generate high-tech jobs.
In its second phase, the project will incorporate renewable energy sources. Tax incentives and customs exemptions have been offered to boost investment.
On May 21, the government launched the Pakistan Digital Asset Authority (PDAA) to license and regulate exchanges, custodians, wallets, stablecoins, tokenized platforms, and DeFi applications.
Chainalysis ranked Pakistan 9th globally for retail crypto adoption. Statista expects 27 million crypto users in Pakistan by 2025.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Beat Gold: $100B Annually by 2027?
According to Bitwise, institutional investors may pour $120 billion into Bitcoin by 2025, and $300 billion by 2026. Inflows come from ETFs, sovereign funds, public companies, and national treasuries.
Currently:
- Public companies hold ~1,146,128 BTC
- Nation-states hold ~529,705 BTC (Top: USA, China, UK)
Bitwise’s bullish scenario expects up to 4.26 million BTC in institutional holdings, or 20% of total supply.
Bitcoin is fast becoming a global reserve asset, gaining acceptance among governments and multinationals.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook: 109,588 Is the Key
Bitcoin remains below $110,000, but the uptrend is intact. A break above $109,588 and then $111,980 could ignite a rally toward $130,000.
Support levels: $106,265, $104,199 (20-EMA), $94,916 (50-SMA)
Resistance levels: $109,588, $111,980, $116,654
If BTC holds $109,588, altcoins could rally too.
Altcoin Watch: HYPE, XMR, AAVE, WLD
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
- Price broke above $35.73; next targets: $42.25 and $50
- Below $35.73, support at $32.15 and $28.50
Monero (XMR)
- Strong breakout above $391; RSI in overbought zone
- Above $412 leads to $456; below $375 risks drop to $347–$332
AAVE
- Found support at $240; 20-EMA at $231 is key
- Next resistance: $285, then $300–$350
- Below $231 risks fall to $217
Worldcoin (WLD)
- Price holding above 20-EMA ($1.20); next target $1.65
- Break above $1.65 leads to $2.50; support at $1.09
On-Chain Insights: LTH Selling & Wallet Growth Volatility
Bitcoin’s Liveliness hit a 4-year high, suggesting long-term holders (LTHs) are taking profits. This can create short-term selling pressure.
New address growth is volatile. While early May saw spikes, recent data shows a slowdown, signaling investor caution and potential market fatigue.
Current BTC price: $106,708, just 5% below ATH. If it fails to hold $106,265, it may test $105,000 or $102,734.
Sustaining above $106,265 and breaking $110K would renew bullish sentiment.
Summary & Forward Outlook
Summary: Nvidia’s AI pivot, Pakistan’s energy-backed crypto plan, growing ETF inflows, and strong institutional Bitcoin adoption all point to a robust crypto narrative. Bitcoin remains in a bullish structure, despite temporary volatility.
Forecast:
- Institutional flows will likely accelerate, led by ETFs
- Pakistan and similar markets may become regional crypto hubs
- BTC’s 130K breakout depends on $109,588 reclaim
- On-chain signals suggest consolidation before next leg up
Legal Notice
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment advisory services.Investment advisory services are provided within the framework of an investment advisory agreement to be signed between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit accepting banks and the client.The comments and recommendations contained herein are based on the personal opinions of those who make comments and recommendations.These opinions may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences.Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in accordance with your expectations.
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