Economist Eryılmaz Flips the Script on Gold and Silver’s Next Move

Economist Filiz Eryılmaz has put forward an unconventional forecast for gold and silver, challenging the prevailing consensus that precious metals will continue their uninterrupted upward trajectory. In a widely circulated commentary, Eryılmaz argues that the market narrative around gold has become dangerously one-sided, leaving investors exposed to a sharp reversal that few are currently pricing in. Her scenario breaks from the bullish crowd at a time when both metals sit near historic highs.

Eryılmaz points to a combination of factors that could trigger a meaningful correction: easing geopolitical risk premiums, a potential rebound in the US dollar, and the possibility that central bank gold buying — which has been a key pillar of demand — slows more abruptly than expected. She also highlights silver's industrial exposure as a double-edged sword; while it amplifies gains in a rally, it makes silver especially vulnerable when global manufacturing demand softens. These are not fringe risks — they are live variables right now.

For Turkish savers and investors, this matters enormously. Gold is not just a financial instrument here — it is a cultural savings habit embedded in millions of households. If Eryılmaz's contrarian scenario plays out, those holding large gram-gold or gold-linked fund positions without a stop-loss strategy could face significant paper losses. The question is not whether gold remains a long-term store of value — it does — but whether now is the moment to load up or to trim.

Levent KAYIRA Commentary: Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: Turkish retail investors hold an estimated 5,000 tonnes of gold — one of the highest per-capita physical gold ownership rates in the world. So when an economist says the gold rally may be overextended, that is not an abstract observation. It lands directly on the balance sheets of millions of families.

From my years managing portfolios through the 2001 crisis, the 2008 shock, and the currency turbulence of the 2010s, I have seen how crowded trades unwind fast. Gold at current lira prices has already delivered extraordinary returns for Turkish holders — gram gold above 4,000 TL is a level nobody imagined five years ago. The temptation to chase further is real, but so is the downside.

Eryılmaz's silver call deserves equal attention. Silver trades at roughly a 1:80 ratio to gold right now — historically wide. A mean reversion could cut both ways depending on the catalyst. If industrial demand slips, silver falls harder than gold.

My take: gold remains a core holding for any Turkish investor managing TL risk. But sizing matters. If your gold allocation has grown beyond 30-35% of your savings purely through price appreciation, this is a reasonable moment to rebalance — not panic-sell. Eryılmaz is raising a flag worth heeding.

Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi