Gold Stalls: Analysts Warn Pullback Could Last Through Year-End
The reason this matters is simple: gold’s rally was fueled by a very specific cocktail — aggressive Fed easing expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and relentless central bank buying from emerging markets. As some of that urgency fades, particularly with U.S. economic data coming in mixed and the Fed signaling caution, the upward pressure on gold has temporarily eased. Traders who bought into the momentum are now sitting on paper gains with no clear catalyst to push prices higher in the near term.
For ordinary savers and investors watching this closely, the message is nuanced. A prolonged sideways move is not a collapse — it is a consolidation. History shows gold tends to trade flat for extended periods before making its next decisive move. The question is whether that next move comes before or after year-end, and which global trigger pulls the trigger.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: For Turkish investors, gold is never just a commodity — it is the single most widely held savings instrument in the country, with an estimated 5,000 tonnes sitting in household vaults and under mattresses. When gold goes sideways in dollar terms, Turkish holders face a double variable: the international price plateau AND the direction of the Turkish lira. Even if gold holds flat at $2,300-$2,400 per ounce globally, a weakening lira can still deliver positive returns in TRY terms.
Right now, that lira cushion is thinner than it was 12 months ago. The TCMB’s tightening cycle has brought some stability to the exchange rate, which means the automatic TRY appreciation effect on gold holdings is less reliable. Investors who bought gram gold at peak TRY prices in early 2024 may be sitting closer to breakeven than they realize.
From my time managing portfolios at Garanti and Denizbank, I saw this pattern repeatedly — retail investors chase gold after the run-up, then get frustrated during the consolidation phase and sell at exactly the wrong moment. If you hold physical gold or gold funds, the year-end sideways scenario is not a reason to exit. It is a reason to be patient. New positions, however, should wait for a clearer entry point.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi