Last Week’s Market Movers: What Shifted the Tide

Global markets closed a turbulent week under the combined pressure of shifting U.S. Federal Reserve rate expectations, renewed geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings data. Investors toggled between risk-on and risk-off sentiment almost daily, making it one of the more volatile stretches of 2025. The BIST 100 reflected this uncertainty, trading in a wide band before settling near familiar support levels.

The week's defining moment came as Fed officials pushed back against early rate-cut hopes, reinforcing that borrowing costs will stay elevated longer than markets had priced in. That single signal rippled across emerging markets, pulling capital toward dollar-denominated assets and putting pressure on currencies including the Turkish lira. Oil prices added another layer of complexity, swinging on OPEC+ supply signals and demand concerns out of China.

For Turkish investors and businesses, the week underscored a persistent reality: domestic dynamics — inflation trajectory, TCMB policy stance, and credit conditions — are no longer the only variables in play. External shocks now land faster and hit harder than they did even five years ago. Understanding what drove last week's moves is not a history lesson — it's a navigation tool for the week ahead.

Levent KAYIRA Commentary: Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: The Fed's hawkish tone last week was the clearest market signal of the period. When Fed Governor rhetoric shifted from 'patient' to 'no rush,' U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4.4%, and that alone was enough to trigger outflows from EM assets. For Turkey specifically, this matters because the carry trade that has supported lira stability depends on a favorable interest rate differential — and any narrowing of that gap, even on expectations alone, creates pressure.

The BIST 100's wide intraday swings — at points moving 2%+ in a single session — reflect a market that is technically searching for direction. Domestic institutional investors largely held positions, but foreign flow data showed net selling in equities mid-week. That's a pattern I watched closely during my years at Garanti and Denizbank: foreign investors don't exit Turkey stories gradually — they move in blocks.

For small business owners watching credit costs: nothing in last week's global data changes the TCMB's near-term path. Rates stay high. Plan accordingly. For equity investors, volatility like this historically creates entry points — but only if you've done the sector-level homework first.

Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi