Lira Holds at 45.58 — But Don’t Call It Stability
For ordinary Turks, a dollar rate above 45 is no longer shocking — it has been normalized. But normalization is not the same as stability. Every time the lira idles at these levels, import costs stay elevated, fuel prices resist falling, and the monthly grocery bill quietly creeps higher. The exchange rate is not just a number on a screen; it is the price of everything that comes from abroad, and Turkey imports a lot.
What matters now is what keeps the lira here. The Central Bank’s tight monetary policy and relatively high interest rates are doing the heavy lifting. But that policy stance depends on political will staying firm, inflation continuing its slow descent, and global risk appetite not suddenly souring on emerging markets. If any one of those three legs wobbles, 45.58 will not be a floor — it will be a memory.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: From my years managing FX-sensitive portfolios at Garanti and Denizbank, I learned one thing about lira ‘quiet periods’ — they are either the pause before a correction or the reward for discipline. Right now, it looks more like the latter, but the margin for error is thin.
The Central Bank is holding rates at 46%, one of the highest real rates Turkey has run in over a decade. That carry trade appeal is keeping hot money parked in lira assets. Foreign investors holding Turkish T-bills are earning real returns — something unthinkable three years ago. That inflow supports the currency.
But here is the number that keeps me cautious: Turkey’s current account deficit is widening again as domestic demand stays strong. A wider deficit means more dollar demand structurally. If the Fed delays rate cuts further into 2025, emerging market currencies including the lira face renewed pressure. At 45.58, we are not in crisis — but we are one external shock away from testing 47.
For business owners with dollar costs or euro payables: do not assume this rate lasts. Lock in where you can.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi