Three Months of War: How Iran Conflict Rewired Global Markets
The biggest immediate shock came through energy. Brent crude spiked sharply as Strait of Hormuz transit fears resurfaced — roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through that chokepoint. Gold climbed as institutional money fled to safety, while regional stock markets in the Gulf experienced extreme volatility. Defense stocks globally surged. Meanwhile, central banks in fragile economies found themselves fighting on two fronts: controlling inflation while defending currencies hit by capital outflows.
Three months later, the dust is settling — but not clearing. Oil has partially retreated from its peak as diplomatic channels reopened, yet the structural uncertainty remains baked into prices. For Turkey specifically, the conflict arrived at the worst possible time: during a critical disinflation cycle that requires stable energy import costs and investor confidence. The 3-month scorecard reveals not just market moves, but a fundamental shift in how risk is being priced in an increasingly unstable region.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: Turkey sits at the intersection of every major risk this conflict created. We import roughly 90% of our oil needs — every $10 rise in Brent crude adds approximately $6-7 billion annually to our current account deficit. That’s not an abstract number; it directly weakens the lira and forces the Central Bank’s hand.
From my banking years, I watched how the 2003 Iraq War and 2006 Lebanon conflict each triggered 15-25% lira depreciation episodes within weeks. This Iran conflict follows a similar script but with one critical difference: Turkey’s foreign currency reserves are in a structurally stronger position today than in those episodes, giving the TCMB more room to manage the shock.
The gold run is the most actionable signal for Turkish investors. Domestic gold prices are up roughly 18-22% over this three-month window — that’s not just global sentiment, it’s local hedging behavior. Turkish households historically pile into gold during geopolitical stress, and this time they were right to.
The real danger going forward is if oil stabilizes above $90 and stays there. That single scenario derails Turkey’s inflation target timeline by at least two quarters and potentially forces rate policy to reverse course. Watch the Hormuz shipping data weekly — it’s the early warning system.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi