Turks See Inflation Staying High for Three More Years
Why does this matter beyond a chart? Because inflation expectations are self-fulfilling. When businesses expect prices to keep rising, they raise prices early. When workers expect higher inflation, they demand higher wages now. When landlords expect costs to climb, they lock in aggressive rent increases. The survey data suggests that confidence in a rapid return to single-digit inflation remains fragile at best — meaning the psychology of high inflation is still deeply embedded in Turkish economic behavior.
For the Central Bank of Turkey, this is the real battle. Cutting rates or signaling any policy loosening before expectations are truly anchored risks reigniting the inflation spiral. The TCMB has made progress on the headline number, but surveys like this show that credibility — the hardest currency in central banking — is still being rebuilt. Until expectations genuinely compress, the cost of living fight is far from over.
💬 Levent KAYIRA Commentary
Ekonomik Gündem Analysis: In my 15 years running fixed income and FX books at Turkish banks, the single most dangerous market condition was not high inflation itself — it was unanchored expectations. You can hedge a number. You cannot hedge a moving target. This survey confirms that Turkish market participants still see a wide dispersion of likely inflation outcomes over the next three years, which means nobody is pricing in a clean soft landing.
For equity investors, wide inflation expectations translate directly into higher risk premiums and compressed valuation multiples. Turkish stocks have rallied on disinflation hopes, but if the survey consensus clusters above 20-25% for the three-year average, that rally has a ceiling. Bond investors face the same math — real yields only become attractive if you trust where inflation actually lands.
For small business owners, the practical takeaway is this: do not sign long-term supply contracts at fixed prices expecting inflation to rescue your margins. The professionals surveyed here are not betting on a fast normalization. Plan your pricing with conservatism, keep inventory lean, and treat any sub-30% inflation print as a bonus — not a baseline.
Kaynak: Google News Ekonomi